Friday, April 3, 2009

04/03/09 thoughts

The unbelievable ability for Main Stream Media to state the obvious and then have the arrogance to feel like they are reporting something new/surprising.

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Urban Survival...


Splintered States

The first headline to strike my bloodshot pair of eyes this morning (due to allergies to tractoring/brush hogging the south 16, not el Don, which would have been the preferred cause) was the headline that "One in 10 Americans gets help to buy food." The story then went on to say that more than 2.9-million folks right here in the Republic of Texas get help - a good thing as I see it. Nationally the average benefit works out to something like $112 per person, although in California the benefits are about to take a major jump upward - going up 13.6% - and curiously, California has fewer people on food stamps than does Texas, with only 2.5 million receiving help.

Since tax time is just around the corner, this all gets me to wondering about the proper 'role of the dole'. Obviously, helping people who are hungry, laid off, homeless and living in tents or cars is the right thing to do. But, how far up the food chain does it go?

The G20 yesterday decided to ante up a trillion dollars (plus or minus a Honda) to bail out the international financial system, on the notion that without a healthy international economy, the whole kit and caboodle falls apart. That may, or may not be so, depending on who you talk to. However, since I'm an economic Neanderthal (and no slight to Neanderthals intended) and I'm stuck on why AIG has to keep sucking up money while Lehman was flushed. I keep looking for some sign of a sound currency - anywhere it seems - because the cause of all our woes seems to be the paper that shows up so often down at the root of all evil.

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The Unemployment Report for March is out...and as expected, it took another major move upward:

"Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline sharply in March (-663,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, with almost two-thirds (3.3 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 5 months. In March, job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

In March, the number of unemployed persons increased by 694,000 to 13.2 mil- lion, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.5 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has grown by about 5.3 million, and the unem- ployment rate has risen by 3.4 percentage points. Half of the increase in both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate occurred in the last 4 months. (See table A-1.)

The unemployment rates continued to trend upward in March for adult men (8.8 percent), adult women (7.0 percent), whites (7.9 percent), and Hispanics (11.4 percent). The jobless rates for blacks (13.3 percent) and teenagers (21.7 per- cent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 6.4 percent in March, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.6 percent a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed tem- porary jobs increased by 547,000 to 8.2 million in March."

Those numbers, serious as they are and the highest since 1983, understate the real situation. The harsh reality begins to get a little more accurately reflected in the U-6 number which is the broader measure of labor underutilization which I call the PhD's flipping burgers and IT managers stocking store shelves index climbed to 16.2% last month. But even further, there's no telling how bad things would really be if the workforce number was limited and the discouraged and underground economy numbers were cranked into the equation. I've got real problems with telephone-based surveys since 1) almost everyone has a cell phone and 2) numbers change all the time, but that's a discussion we don't have time for.

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Tent cities continue to spring up around the country. In California, where the governator opened up state fair grounds, Sacramento tent city residents are saying they won't be moved from their present location. This all sets up the ugly prospect of something we've been eyeing in the HalfPastHuman predictive linguistics for a while to become very real: the potential for a showdown between "authorities" and the homeless, since as KCRA reports "Some at 'tent city' unhappy with Cal Expo site" and "Sacramento homeless camp expected to be shut down."

It's all so disappointing to watch: Bankers getting more dole than common folks (must save the world, don'tcha know), the PTB may be setting up a "hurt them to help them" showdown in a lot of places, and meantime the second biggest headline on Goggle's News site this morning when I looked was "Madonna loses Malawi adoption bid."

WTF people?

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President Obama is off to Strasbourg for NATO meetings; and as a result that city has gone into lockdown/fortress mode.

North Korea is readying it's latest rocket for launch despite not-so-thinly-veiled threats from the US that 'ya'll better not do that'.

And as if all that isn't enough, seems Cambodia and Thailand are exchanging potshots across their border. Just what the world needs about now: another war.

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I had a conversation last night with Michael Panzner, whose latest book "When Giants Fall" was pimped in yesterday's report. Here's a very interesting bit of trivia about his book, which I don't think he'd mind my sharing with you: Panzner's original title for it was "Splintered States". Publisher's title is fine and all, but linguistically I can't help feeling that 'splintered' is a much hotter word than "fall" when it comes to action verbs.

Anyway, it's an absolutely dandy description of what's going on in the world right now: Things are splintering almost everywhere you look. In a period when we all ought to be coming together, we're all splintering; there's a global retribing going on as affinity groups that didn't exist are popping up all over the place to fight (check as many as you want here) ( ) crimes committed in finance by banksters ( ) foreclosures ( ) religious extremists and lots of other issues that received only miniscule attention 10 or 20-years back.

So that's the first point in this morning's report: As a 'framing concept' think 'splintered states' (courtesy of Panzner) and throw in a bunch of terra entity change to come (from he ALTA reports) and you'll have the right serving dish for the rest of the day's news.


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Trillions and Trillions

Here's a simple math problem for you:

We start with "House approves $3.6 trillion budget blueprint."

Next we take the US GDP at $13.84 trillion and whack maybe 10% off that thanks to the recession-turning-to-depression which we'll call, oh, about $12.46 trillion.

Then we divide the budget by my estimated GDP figure and we come up with 28.9% of GDP going to government. Federal government. Don't forget to add your state and local taxes (property tax and sales taxes) on top of that.

Now I pop open Excel and enter 1/1/2009 in cell A1.

Then I enter =365*.289 in A2. (Excel says 105.485 when enter is pressed.)

In cell A3: =A1+A2 which says federal taxes and promises to pay mean working until 4/16/2009 to pay for federal spending. Not even touching the federal deficit.

Yikes. And it's even later when you consider the number of people who are unemployed..but we don't need to go down that rabbit hole.

Markets

Despite the jobs report the market may be able to scratch out a gain today. But can it last? A buddy who trades in Europe (Luxembourg) sends this interesting observation:

"There has been a very consistent pattern of market tops with varying degrees of significance ranging from short-term to long term. The dates of the previous highs are 231 trading days apart and occurred on August 1st, 2005, June 30, 2006, June 4th, 2007, May 2, 2008, and today, April 2nd, 2009."

Thursday, April 2, 2009

04/02/09 thoughts

Open a newpaper (if you can find one not going out of business). Read it cover to cover. This is what the death of capitalism looks like.

I am not saying we will not make through this "recession"; however, I am saying that we have rapidly increased what used to be a slow pace of nationalizing everything. With this new accelerated pace I would not be surprised to see the end of the USA based on the original constitution as we know it.

Here
is what happens when the govt gets involved in Economics. The free market folks find advantages (loopholes), and exploit them...it the way it has always worked...it is the way it always will. I figure better to have it done out in the open by mostly honest people than have the enterprising done by mobsters and gangs in back alleys. Case and point: What did an entrepreneur look like in the USA in the 1950's? What did an entrepreneur look like in the USSR during the same time?

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Please note, sales tax in Seattle is now 10%. That is bullshit. Nothing insightful to say...

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Urban Survival...


Loose "Change"

AP Writer Calvin Woodward's got it right in "PROMISES PROMISES: Obama tax pledge up in smoke..."

Welcome to the world of non-change change. We elect someone on the promise of bringing change and instead get higher taxes, an administration chock-full of ex-Clintonistas, a crappy economy and moving more troops to obscure places. So, where's the change? I mean besides trying to disarm Americans and erase what's left of the tattered Constitution that the Patriot Acts didn't didn't already dismember on the republicorps' watch?

Oh, I'm sorry: Yes, there is change. I apologize. Now the government can ask for the head-on-a platter of a CEO if a big company doesn't toe the mark. We haven't seen the end of that yet, or so it seems from reading the CBS piece on Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's vision of a planned economy. Want to know how it all turns out this fall? Ever read a history of the Soviet Union.?

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Meantime, it doesn't help, of course that the republicorps are doing their damnedest to scuttle any would-be economic recovery, since they were able to foist a steaming lump-o-crap economy off on the new kids (the Obama crew less Clintonistas). In fact, it sez right here -- and this comes from Karl Rove so you know it must be true (sound of el Don being poured) that "The president is 'keeping score'" referring to his former boss.

And the evils of partisanship were further underscored as former veep-Dick "Cheney emerges from cave to attack Obama". Ah, such behavior provides plenty of visual content for our resident cartoon genius Rebecca Price...

And so are we...for change. But, the more things 'change' the more they stay the same, huh?

Gee 20

One "demonstrator dies and 87 arrested following clashes with police" in the London where the G20 is trying to scheme their way out of global mass consumption paradigm crackup by coming up with a finer kind of paper.

One Brazilian official has spilt (sic) the beans that the G20 will raise funding of the International Monetary Fund by $1-trillion. Guess who's gonna be writing that check?

Now, why do you suppose the IMF needs a trillion dollars? Well, a Wikipedia entry here oughta give you a clue:

"The role of the Bretton Woods institutions has been controversial since the late Cold War period, as the IMF policy makers supported military dictatorships friendly to American and European corporations. Critics also claim that the IMF is generally apathetic or hostile to their views of democracy, human rights, and labor rights. The controversy has helped spark the anti-globalisation movement. Arguments in favor of the IMF say that economic stability is a precursor to democracy; however, critics highlight various examples in which democratized countries fell after receiving IMF loans.[6]

In the 1960s, the IMF and the World Bank supported the government of Brazil’s military dictator Castello Branco with tens of millions of dollars of loans and credit that were denied to previous democratically-elected governments."

So if you're thinking to yourself "Are you saying mean this is all just to buy more old paradigm defending?" Hell yeah, fool! Here, take a green star for your efforts.

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And, as of this morning, it just got cheaper for the IMF and World Bank to make "loans" to developing countries, in return for which corporations seem to end up in control of public utilities and waterworks and such, as the ECB cut interest rates by 0.25%. And Trichet says it could go lower. yee-haw! Load up on free financial for third world assets!

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Lesson Learnt? The PTB has learned that the time to buy (or seize) assets is when blood is running in the streets. And unfortunately that's not a figure of speech anymore, is it?

George The Book Pimp

Thanks to the rickety time machine project, I've enjoyed a pretty clear view of where things are headed here in the Land Of the... for almost 9-years, and for longer thanks to a ton of study in the field of longwave economics. But you don't need a time machine...just an eye for good books will get you a leg up on the rest of the lemmings & sheep running about.

Not often I will come right out and pimp a book, but the arrival recently of Michael Panzner's newest (which he forgot to autograph!!!) prompts me to come right out and endorse it because it will help you navigate through the crapstorm of 'change' going on all about.

Since this morning's headline provide such a fine backdrop, here's how the inside flap begins:

"Once the embodiment of prosperity, the United States now finds itself in a precarious position. With its financial system in shambles and global standing on the wane, many believe we are witnessing the end of the American era. In When Giants Fall, author Michael Panzner puts the coming age of post-American dominance in perspective, and addresses the far-reaching effects it will have on our lives, as well as the economic opportunities that will arise from it.

With this timely guide, Panzner describes how widespread economic changes—the product of growing conflict and wars, shortages, logistical disruptions, and a breakdown of the established political and monetary order—will impact businesses as well as investors, and discusses why individuals will be forced to rethink livelihoods, lifestyles, and living arrangements. He makes the case that for many people this will be nothing short of a modern Dark Ages, where each day brings fresh anxieties, unfamiliar risks, and a sense of foreboding.

However, for those enlightened few who understand what is really going on and what will likely happen next, the chaotic years ahead may well represent a singular opportunity—a time when you can realize goals you never thought possible and achieve a level of wealth and security that leaves you head-and-shoulders above everyone else. But to do this, you will have to understand how things got to where they are today and, more importantly, how they will play out in the future. When Giants Fall answers these and many other essential questions. From an examination of key economic, political, geopolitical, and social issues to the realities of earning a living, protecting and preserving wealth, running a business, and looking after loved ones, this practical guide provides a straightforward and comprehensive game plan for surviving—and thriving—in the uniquely unsettling years ahead.

The road ahead will be fraught with challenges that will be impossible for anyone to ignore or avoid—regardless of their current circumstances. But if you understand what's going on, set out a viable plan, and remain focused, you can get through these troubled times unscathed. Engaging and informative, When Giants Fall offers cutting-edge strategies and much-needed direction that will allow you to achieve financial security and stability in an increasingly uncertain and dangerous world.

So yup, run right over to Amazon and get a copy of When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era. The economy is on a windy mountain road and we're all in this old bus with bad brakes, and it's raining and mudslides threaten...helps to have a map. It's in the same league with Robert Kaplan's the Coming Anarchy...which has also proven quit prescient.

The books only shortfall? I haven't found the reference to UrbanSurvival or Peoplenomics yet...but I'm still reading...

Implausible Deniability Department

Remember Maurice Greenberg? "AIG Problem not his fault says Greenberg: report".

Lemme see....Greenberg left AIG in 2005 was it? And AIG-FP (financial products) unit was set up when? 1987 was it? And wasn't Greenberg ultimately Joseph Cassano's boss?

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Speaking of which, have you ever looked at the Famous Drexel Alumni list? The Bond Dude has been muttering about the current econopickle: "From the people who brought you junk bonds..." Shhhh...even if this is history rhyming on the South Seas Bubble....

Auto Sales What?

Suck.

NY Times notices hope. Do they put fluoride in NYC's water?

Unemployment?

Also sucks.

Markets?

Rally. See previous question about fluoridated water in NYC.

Fueling Controversy

North Korea is reportedly fueling its rocket that they're about to test, much to the consternation of the Japan (and American) military types watching things.

Springtime Weather

A look at the radar over our part of East Texas at this hour shows a lot of rain coming down; so much so in fact that our satellite backup system is intermittent due to microwave absorption by the super-soggy clouds a whizzin' by.

I see it's storming over in Atlanta this morning, too.

And in the really really deep South - as in Australia, they're up to their armpits and higher in flooding as the flip side of hell seems to be swimming lessons. When someplace is getting nearly 12-inches of rain in six hours, it puts even our East Texas gully-washers to shame. Not that we might not exaggerate a bit about East Texas rains, mind you. Probably wouldn't be the first time that a Texas claim of 12 inches was claimed...er....

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Speaking of flooding and such: You saw where "Fargo resisted FEMA recommendation to evacuate"? I can't help but wonder whether FEMA might have had a little more credibility if the KatRita disasters (not to mention illegal arms seizures) hadn't happened? Takes a while to get over such imagery, I expect.

North Dakota is thanking South Dakota for help and Interstate 29 is reopened.

Not Yet Department

Despite a number of web sites which have popped up around the net proposing the 'end of the world' is coming from a solar 'kill shot', a sip or two of el Don features some reflection on the headline "Deep Solar Minimum" out of NASA.

"2008 was a bear. There were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days: plot. Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008."

All of which is not to say that the remote viewers who see such stuff in our future won't be right at some point in the future. It's just that the 11-year solar cycle watching ham radio operator in my (who follows this stuff because it's what drives HF radio propagation) figures that if 2008 was the solar minima, then we have 5 1/2 years until the peak of solar activity, and even then, statistically speaking, the big flares happen on the backside of the cycle --0 after the peak. So, no, I am not putting a large hole in the ground, or looking for caves deep underground like the movie "Knowing" talked about. I may be wrong, but 2014 seems a lot more likely than 2012.

On the other hand, no one gets out of life alive, anyway so WTF.

Light's Out

"CBS to flip the switch on "Guiding Light" which has been running for 72-years according to Guinness Book.

With more than 15-thousand back episodes (in fact almost 16,000) imagine how much hard drive space that would take up? No wonder we've had to develop cheap terabyte USB drives, huh?

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Coping: Humor is the Best Medicine

You may notice, if you come to this site very often, that I try to take a tongue-in-cheek, never too serious about most things approach to the daily news. Sure, there's a lot of bad news out and about, but a life lived without laughter is hardly worth the ride. So I've spent a fair bit of time trying to figure out what's funny in writing. Ever since my junior year of high school, I think it was, where Mr. Staley's English class worked on the drivers of humor and how to incorporate them into one's writing. Things like identification, embarrassment, and so forth seem to add to humor, although here lately, I've taken a liking to absurdity as a major driver of humor; but this is no doubt fueled by reading corporate 10-k's, Treasury's public debt to the penny, and the flow of funds of the United States from the Fed.

I point all this out because Bill Cosby is about to receive the Mark Twain humor prize. I admire both greatly.

Twain's best, as I recall it, was when he described how he had given up his big-city ways and become the editor of a newspaper in a farming community. In "How I edited an agricultural paper once" he uses absurdity in the same way I endeavor to report economic items:

"Concerning the Pumpkin. -- This berry is a favorite with the natives of the interior of New England, who prefer it to the gooseberry for the making of fruit cake, and who likewise give it the preference over the raspberry for feeding cows, as being more filling and fully as satisfying. The pumpkin is the only esculent of the orange family that will thrive in the North, except the gourd and one or two varieties of the squash. But the custom of planting it in the front !yard with the shrubbery is fast going out of vogue, for it is now generally conceded that the pumpkin, as a shade tree, is a failure."

Absurdity comes through in Cosby's work, too. Here's a YouTube of Cosby's classic sketch about "Noah"

So it is that over the longer term, the humor of absurdity seems to wear best. The so-called 'shock" of toilet-mouthed humor doesn't last because while the "ef" word may have been a shocker to hear in a polite American society of the 1950's, I can't hardly to to the local Wal-Mart without hearing someone using the word almost completely unconsciously into their cell phone. Not that people swear more (or less) at Wal-Mart; it's just that I don't often get into such close proximity of others any more often than I have to.

Absurdity, on the other hand, and fantasy or improbable situations, plays well across time.

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Most folks don't realize the degree to which they 'program' themselves via their communications inputs. But, it shouldn't surprise anyone to find that video gamers might be more momentarily (or longer) prone to violence after playing GTA, Doom, or Castle Wolfenstein. I won't kid you: Instead of taking the 930, "Porsche Need for Speed" blows off a lot of energy and I haven't gotten a speeding ticket from my computer -- yet. Similarly, I find doing the stormy landing of a 747 in San Francisco in Microsoft Flight Simulator somehow makes the odd airplane flight a little more tolerable.

But mostly, I'm becoming anti-TV sharing to anti-media for two reasons: First, I'm more interested in collecting knowledge about things. YouTube has some remarkable lectures and content. Secondly, I really appreciate originality. So much of television is formulaic.

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But times are changing, and probably always will. (Pardon the Yogi Berra-ism). Twain (whose works you can find here) made his mark using words. Cosby was a radio and television product.

Looking ahead (assuming society hangs together) I expect that at some point, a video game will win such a prestigious award. I'd even go so far as to nominate "Leisure Suit Larry" for the award. Some of the street/gallows humor in GTA is pretty good, too. If you missed it, turn up the radio.

Back to my simple point here: Congrats to Cosby. And thank you.

This is Sick Department

"Austin ER's got 2,678 visits from 9 people over 6 years." This as a "Task force seeking ways to divert non-emergencies away from emergency rooms." Here's my contribution: Proof of citizenship, maybe?

Rising Tire Sizes

Had an interesting conversation with the fellow who runs the local performance wheel & tire emporium here in Palestine, TX Wednesday. Worth a couple of bullet points:

  • Almost no tires are made in the USA any more. Until last year, there was an operation making 'em up in the Tyler Texas area. But that was shut down mostly because the largest tire that could be made there was 16-inch diameter. Which gets to the second bullet point:

  • 16-inch tires are quickly becoming passé. The larger the wheel diameter, the more rubber can be put on the road and 22" tires are becoming more common. I admitted my first-ever car, a 67 Ford Falcon had only 13" tires on it, which shows to go yah something about aging, doesn't it?

  • The new tire balancing gear is really phenomenal. If you can sneak into the shop area (easily done in small town America, but just about impossible in you-know-what kind of retentive big city operations, look at the computer horsepower being used in tire machines. Awesome.

The trip, tires, and balancing underscored something for me: Globalists have really hosed over America. We can't be very independent from China when strategic manufacturing (like tires) has been almost entirely exported. It doesn't take a genius in military strategic planning to figure out the implications for future foreign policy, does it?

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

04/01/09 thoughts

Gold

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Reading stuff like this pisses me off. Capitalism by its very nature cannot fail. The whole point is competitive markets. Just because a huge company fails doesn't mean capitalism collapses, instead it just means a huge company collapsed...that's it. Fortunately, capitalism allows for smaller, hungrier, more efficient companies to quickly fill the void. But no, the Government is too scared to let markets function freely. "We must do something!" was the rally cry, "Or else everything is going to cease to exist as we know it!" was the reasoning. This type of thinking will be the Death of America. We used to be free people that took responsibility for our own actions. What happened to that? Why do we think a government that can't run a whore house and liquor store profitably will do any better with AIG?

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Where we are headed


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Urban Survival...

Between my lawyer/consigliore and The Bond Dude, a picture emerges of how we got here: It begins with the removal of usury laws and the landmark supreme court decisions which said that out of state credit card operations couldn't be held to in-state usury laws. And since the financial lobby has been so powerful in DC a national usury law wasn't (and isn't) going to happen. So once you get state usury laws busted, making 'financial instruments' evolves into the biggest industry in America and when it finally fills up every possible niche, things collapse just as they are continuing to do even now.

Kinda makes you wonder about the quality of leadership that took us onto this slaughterhouse chute that feeds into the 'bankers kill us all' outcome. Now, you'd think that recent events would lead to serious criticism and replacement of some of the folks who got us into this pickle. Oh, you'll see it in the headlines like the one about Senate Banking chair Christopher "Dodd’s AIG Ties, Cash Shortage Threaten Senate Re-Election Bid" but I have come to distrust the voters (or is it voting machines?) in Connecticut, since the voters there have returned him in the past.

Apparently Connecticut voters don't view stories like "Dodd Panel OKs Bill To End Predatory Credit Card Practices" with the same cynicism I do, in that I wonder if this isn't little more than a fund-raising tactic - much as Dodd's you-gotta-be-kidding presidential campaign raised thousands upon thousands from AIG execs. But this morning's report shouldn't be read as a slam of the 'Teflon Dodd' or the lack of clarity on the part of Connecticut voters.

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But speaking of 'slipping it to...' there's another headline to inspect before we get into the really nasty stuff of the day: "U.S. plans to ease GM into bankruptcy: report" catches my eye. Could it be that working stiffs in the auto industry don't mean as much to America's future as financial lobbyists and their pet bailouts? Naw. Certainly not in America, land of the brave, home of the free, at least till usury laws were busted and financing layers upon layers of paper became more profitable than R&D, new products, and plant & equipment. All done to the tune of "Fight Protectionism!" which might have put workers of the world on a more even purchasing power parity basis.

And speaking of purchasing power, am I the only one who sees the irony in that the Third World and developing countries are going to be leading the global recovery? Yep, sez so right here in this Wall Street Journal report: World economy is going to drop 1.7% this year by in high income countries (like you know where) the drop is 2.9% for the year.

Be a good little sheep...move along, nothing to see here. But that's the game for the multi-nationals: Make enough elsewhere and let the standard of living float down more in the phat countries (which used to include the US) and do so under the guise of 'protecting' someone other than multinational P&L's. You see at the top of the heap the deck is being stacked: and "WTO Lamy: G20 Must Be Wary Of "Low-Intensity Protectionism".

What scares the hell out of the offshore tax haven gnomes is that a "Big slide in global trade looms over G-20 meeting" and that the existing (highly profitable) model for corpgov must be maintained at all costs, which is how the G20 meetings tomorrow are being set up. While it's nice that "Obama urges greater economic action" at the international level, I'm sorry to report I've feel a wave of 'Who needs 'em?" washing over me.

If 'saving the global economy' means one more job outsourced to India, one more foreign car company kicking our asses, or a continuation of the 6-thousand miles long trip of apples to America, 6-thousand miles for South American beef, then maybe...and only saying maybe we have some serious reengineering of the old way of doing things so that the whole planet can prosper a little more.

The biggest problem the world faces today from an economics perspective is that there's not enough real work being done. The world is at a kind of super saturation where if we don't need to make more of anything else (need another cell phone?) we have to come up with a proxy for employment to keep money flowing through the system - because without that money flow, the world world grinds to a halt just like sand does when poured into a transmission.

I'm a free market guy...up to a point. That point is when someone comes up with ideas that undermine if not destroy the Constitution and the concept of America. So pardon me if I lobby for protectionism - and an end to outsourcing. Pardon me if I can't believe that Texas residents end up eating Argentine beef. And please overlook my skepticism of a global currency or its bastard son, the global tax.

Depressions really are painful but until we get on with tilling under the old paradigm which is failing in spectacular fashion and plant a new sustainable, purchasing parity regime in its place, the world is going to continue to experience a decline as the paper-hangers meeting in London desperately try to paper over their folly so that the uber rich can profit, the paradigm preserved, and regular folks of the world exploited for the sake of those at the very top.

What's more, it's like to work for a while, linguistics seem to say. Summer of hell and all, but the rest of the melt in the fall seems in the cards. Jokes on us. I'm starting a new campaign for a November Fools Day in the first week of November. Watch closely...

Yo-Yo Markets for Dumb-Dumb Investors

Let me see here: Hmmm...Dow was up 86 yesterday and futures down about 88 when I looked this morning. Can you say "thrashing around looking for direction"? Or, howzabout "looking to decisive G20 action"? Or the most honest answer of all which might be: "Churning".

But Seriously

Who can take government seriously when states like Iowa kick "Hundreds of Iowans out of public hearing" to change the state's tax laws. That's OK, because Iowa has a marvelous marketing opportunity to change its name from IOWA to IOU.

If California doesn't trademark it first, 'natch.

Even More Seriously

Oh-oh....another White House HR boner as Health and Human Services nominee Kathleen Sebelius has to correct three years of tax returns and send in another $7,000.

How many times do the WH HR folks botch up the screening? Is is that they don't remember to ask, or is it the democorps just don't have that much talent floating around? How about exec auto guys like Rock Wagoner and Lee Iacocca for some of them real jobs?

And Most Serious

"State try to tap high earners" says a report in the WSJ this morning, and making mention of a higher income tax on the rich. But of course, the point is missed that the really, really, really rich take their excess comp offshore as stock options which don't become taxable income until they are cashed in, and that, boys and firls is why there are 50,000 offshore accounts in Switzerland, just to pick a starting point. And then we move on to the Channel Islands, Grand Cayman, Grand Turk, the ABC islands and.....

OMG, how frigging stoopid do they think we are? And what about the uber rich who buy tax-free bonds for an income stream; how you gonna tax that?

Jobs with Uncle

You see this? "CIA launches recruitment drive on internet and TV"? m Wonder if they give hiring preference to folks who can forge Niger uranium documents?

Demons of Iran Department

"US must end Iran nuke drive, or Israel may attack, PM warns". News flash: Iran is a sovereign country.

How's This for Torture?

"Miss Universe says had "lot of fun" in Guantanamo" Look, but don't handle the merchandise...what could be worse torture than this?

Controlled Media

"Fla. Fox affiliate refuses to air Osbournes show." Ozzy Osbourne too profane? Too much adult content? I thought the Puritans landed over on the Atlantic side....

Uncontrolled Media

"TV News Reporter Arrested After Hitting NYPD Horse".

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Coping: Whole Body Scanning

A story on Drudge this morning goes to the idea that whole body scanning of airline passengers is being tested in Salt Lake City. KSL says "Site has airline passengers worried about privacy." Well, yeah.

Show me a technology that has been abused in one way or the other and we can discuss this further. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

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Also in our 'towering government' file is a report that "surveillance towers planned for Detroit, Buffalo."

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I wasn't just-a-kiddin' when I made the claim that 9/11 launched a whole new segment of the economy - that of 'security'.

Have you been watching what has been going on, from a software development standpoint? Remember in the 1980's (late) and 1990's when there was a kick upward in software development as ERP (enterprise resource planning) software came along? It's still being rolled out, too, by companies like PeopleSoft/Oracle and SAP...not to mention all the open source and not to ignore Microsoft's multiply flavored Dynamics and such.

So now look at an analog in the security industry: GE today has rolled out it's latest version of "Facility Commander Wnx V7.5" which features...

"...Integrating access control, photo identification credentialing, video surveillance and alarm monitoring under one platform ensures customers have immediate access to information; thereby reducing the response time to potential security threats.

Anyway, just a passing note here that it's only a matter of time until someone up the government foodchain somewhere says the GE "Hey! You know that "Facility Commander" product? Can you scale that if we give you the server platform?"

Oh, sure, it'll take some time and I can't even begin to enumerate the middleware nightmares, LOL, but eventually, one can conceptualize a global wide-ranging security platform which will operate something like the ERP platforms used by colleges and universities that interface to the US Department of Ed's financial aid system.

Only this time it will be something like son/further iteration of Facility Commander with a secure interface off to the government NCIC (national crime information center) systems and similar, so instead of processing student loans effectively, the system could look at a face recognition scan of someone coming into the lobby of a building, ID it through NCIC as you having not paid a speeding ticket, and have an officer come arrest you at your meeting on the 37th floor which is the only place your control badge will let you go.

No kidding, smart elevator systems are already being deployed - have been since 2004.

Like I say, there are plenty of middleware/security issues to be worked through, but being a marketing guy, I can see it all coming because as I used to say to the endless irritation of software engineers I've worked with: "It's only code, fer cryin' out loud!".

In the meantime, keep your clothes on. At least in Salt Lake City.

Oh...and don't forget to remember the "old days" when cavities used to be searched only by dentists...

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

03/31/09 thoughts

Obama's Plan

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Urban Survival...

Emotions & Markets: Waiting for my Entry Point

Time to cowboy-up, get really steely-eyed, and make some good investment decisions. Like Baron Rothschild, I think it was, said "Buy while there's blood in the streets" and I'm smelling opportunity close at hand. No money on the table yet, but I'm ready to buy chips.

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You may recall that last December around the middle of the month, I explained what my outlook was -- in very general terms -- for 2009. As I outlined it then, I was expecting a market low to be put in by around the beginning of March, and thereafter, we ought to see a rally to perhaps July or so, and then it would be time to 'load the boat' on the short side, because there would be a lot more scary times to come on this roller-coaster ride which is the financial markets.

Despite being a little late in getting here (but the markets do run on their own clock), we're getting mightily close to the point where I'm tempted to throw in a few bucks on the long side, because despite the wealth of bad news, the market 'feels' to me like it could do a decent run up; something I outlined in boring detail with charts and all for Peoplenomics subscribers last weekend. So, over the next couple of days, I'll be moving a little cash into the commodity account, where I've been eyeing the price action in oil and the precious metals, and then some into the stock trading account where I've got my eye on some interesting options. Not pulling the trigger on any of these yet, but I'm sort of wandering back to the dice table, if'n you know what I mean.


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Not that I'm in any particular hurry for it, because while the rally's going to be sweet - and pour a little money into my piggybank, it also means that by next November (or even mid October), people will be playing the game of financial duck & cover again, only this time, we'll be dropping 7-thousand points from a much lower diving board, such that we could hit Dow 3,000 (or worse) in early 2010. So, if you think things have been exciting here lately, you ain't seen nothin' yet. But for now, I've got a smile on my face, and positions to consider. Not everyone lost money during the Great Depression before, and there's no reason to do so this time, as long as the broad brush of history is kept in mind.

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This morning, in a few minutes from my usual posting time) we will get the consumer confidence numbers. This is a key for the rally to 'get legs' because if the reading is anywhere from neutral on up, that will mean the consumer is either ready to start spending again. But, if it's really bad, it could spin the markets back toward the downside.

Not that I care. Construction spending tomorrow, and then Thursday, and the all-important unemployment report Friday all have the potential to drive the markets lower. Which would set up my entry point next week sometime, just prior to Good Friday. Anyway, that's my thinking for now, this isn't investment advice, and I should consider joining Gamblers Anonymous, I suppose. Scratch tickets, one armed bandits, dice tables, or options; it's all along the same line. But, then again, so's banking lately...

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One reason I'm holding onto gold, I mean besides the obvious inflation that will be unleashed by the maniacal spending out of Washington lately, is that as the G-20 meets in London, there's actually discussion that Gold may come back into some kind of monetary role. Gold doesn't have to be the only standard, but even partial convertibility would likely firm up prices. Longer term, I figure gold's bound to double from here, and silver's got to play catch-up along the way, too. So that's why I am considering gold call options for my commodity account.

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I assume that you've been watching the price of gasoline? I'm expecting that as we get closer to the summer driving season, the price of petroleum will begin to climb. It's already moving as "Crude oil rises, set for biggest monthly increase since June" is one of the stories on Bloomberg this morning. Very short term, oil's under $50 in some markets this morning, but that's to be expected and a stock market low next week roughly coinciding with a small pullback in oil prices would be just fine by me.

Even though the One-Worlders may not get their global currency agenda shoved through the G-20 meeting (yet), even a modest global recovery (on happy-talk, if nothing else) has the potential to move oil back to the $80 level, or maybe higher.

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The tensions in the country, if this were a sociology class, make a very interesting study. "Workers say "Obama treated autos worse than Wall Street" says an AP report.

What's more, the government's "Substance Abuse & Mental Health Services Administration" has opening a new website feature called "Getting through tough economic times". Replete with\

This website is about the best indicator I can think of, when it comes to timing my return to a bullish stance. You may remember Ure Axiom 528?

"By the time government gets around to fixing something, it's probably no longer broken..."

Just so. Call it a confirming indicator. A bounce off 7,200, or even 7,100 on the Dow next Wednesday could trigger my buying rampage.

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"OECD says govt policies will avert Depression". Yeah, yeah, sure. I'll grant you that as the pimping of 'good times' here through early summer gets rolling, it may seem that way, but as the time monks note, this fall's going to be ugly...very ugly indeed. I'll be printing while the sun shines.


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Rally Driver?

On Thursday the Financial Accounting Standards Board will decide how much lunacy is safe in the mark-to-market rules. As a story headlines here: "Mark-to-Market Lobby Buoys Bank Profits 20% as FASB May Say Yes."

Don'tcha love it? When you start off learning accounting, it's all this must be this way, and thus and so. And then along comes new rules which are exceptions to common sense.

Ure Axiom 76: "If you can't sell something, or there ain't no buyers, it's market value is zero."

Too obvious? Apparently.


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Math

Reader note about our give away money idea:

"40 million people over 50 times $1 million each is 40 x 10^13, or $40 Trillion. Whose side are you on?"

I am the People's Economist! $40 trillion and no unemployment and yada yada is still going to be cheaper than the cost of what comes next. Trust me. We're at what, $8-9 trillion and we haven't even started. Wait till this November when it occurs to everyone all at once "OMG we wasted everything we had in the way of financial bullets and it's still broken."

Drop it to half a million per person, cost is a push for sure and you get nearly the same outcome.


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Hum...so Urban Survival is pretty cheery about the June 2009 - June 2010 I guess. HA! I do not think it will be as bad as this guy is saying it will, but I do agree that the next couple of months will be a brief breather, and then we will continue the downward trends until there is "blood in the streets"...yes I am saying that has not happened yet. Happy Tuesday!