Comment that set me off:
aj May 27, 2009 10:20 PM GMT Karl, Well said. BTW, Obama is not a deception. He is the best president so far. Also, we as parents are emphaszing too much on leadership and that is what we get.. leaders.. but bad leaders.. So, all the real nice jobs, like Engineering design, Computer programming, Genetic Engineering are all going to those bright and well educated Asians. Asian parents teach hardwork and team work. We are deliberately taking our kids out of global competition all in the name of "Leadership education"
My Response:
George May 27, 2009 11:50 PM GMT @ aj, Sorry for my emotionally charged response. That said, you are an idiot. HOW ON EARTH could you make a ridiculously bold statement like Obama "is the best president so far."? He has been in office for 4 months. He was a huge part of the political system that got us into this mess, and under his "leadership" we have gotten empty promises, impossible mandates, unprecedented government expansion, and a debt burden that WILL DESTROY the US in its present form. I bet on everything I own that this is just the beginning. We will have a new Constitution, or an entirely new economic policy within 5 years. It would not surprise me if the US no longer exists at all by 2020. Sorry I got on a rant, the point is do not plan on a "Savior President" to make everything ok. I don't believe a single thing Obama says; he is a shining example of a Liberal Elite. I think he is what is wrong with America personified. However, we are all entitled to our own opinions. I believe personal responsibility is the only thing that will save this Nation, but I also believe that our country is too far into the life cycle of a Empire to have enough people willing to take personal responsibility.
Are we really a Nation with people this ignorant? America has ALWAYS made leaders. It is why we ARE leaders in everything. Americans are great because we have vision! Americans are great because we have the BALLS to take an idea and FORCE it into something that can be used, be profited from, or otherwise add value. We are the people that LEAD. We have been for the past 200 years. Fuck this guy. I still am having a hard time with this one...
Another good article today
The Tapeworm in the Stock Market
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Urban Survival...
Sorry About Coffee
Not to begin at the end here, but have you been watching the December coffee prices over on the commodity side of things? (Link to a chart here). Back in March at the life of contract lows, coffee was under $113. Now, as the close yesterday, it was up over $140. I may not be completely awake yet, since caffeinated miracle juice is just now going to work, but that works out to pretty close to 24% inflation. Oh, did I mention that's for six months?
Let's see how that would annualize, shall we? OK, forget it if you're not up to it. We;ll say something over 50% if the rate of increase were to continue. And there are lots of other commodities which are showing pretty hefty implied inflations.
So much so, in fact, that Dr. Marc Faber of the "Gloom Boom, & Doom Report" is telling Bloomberg that US inflation will approach Zimbabwe levels. Unfortunately, I can't fault his logic.
When a country gets into the position that the US is now in - namely buying its debt from itself to keep that dollar from tanking - it's a sure sign that big changes in the value of the dollar are ahead.
While its true that gold took a bit of a beat down on Tuesday, a simple look at the calendar will explain what was going on: It was end of contract time and it's normal lately to see prices drop around delivery time. Does that mean inflation risk is gone? You are kidding, right?
Then there's the little matter of Consumer Confidence which came out Tuesday higher than expected. Want a simple explanation of what's going on right now? The strong hands may be selling to the weak.
If you look at a three-month chart over at Yahoo Finance, you'll see that 8,574 is the overhead resistance level. About the least surprising outcome for the market here over the next week or two - at least to my way of looking at it - would be to see a rally at the open this morning - momentum follow-through - and then a mid-session reversal as the market runs out of motivation.
Existing Home Sales are due out this morning - and these, coupled with data tomorrow on the new unemployment claims - which may be higher than anticipated - and then Friday's GDP numbers all set us up for the real biggies to come next week when we get Personal Incomes on Monday and then next Friday we see the new monthly unemployment numbers which I'm throwing a dart at 9.3% on right now.
If the home sales are good, we might get a double top off that 8,574 level. If they're bad, nervousness in general could re-enter the market; so many people have turned bullish lately (mostly without solid thinking, I'd add) that it wouldn't surprise me in the least.
There is one thing to keep an eye on, though. That's how inflation will work on the sales of American retailers. We know that retail has been having a very tough go of things, but when the figures come out be sure when you're looking at same-store sales, that you add in something for an inflation correction. I get a kick out of seeing reports like 'same-store sales are up 2%" and then when exploring the data finding that it's not been inflation corrected. So that with 2 1/2% inflation, a 2% increase in dollars handled really means on a constant-dollar basis, sales are down half a percent - that kind of thing - using imaginary numbers to make the point.
But it illustrates how most folks are led around blindly on matters about money. Scary stuff, to be sure. But, with a little deliberate and clear thinking, one can see that the only way out of this mess will be inflation - eventually - as long as the government can get its hands on paper and ink. Which is why Marc Faber's comments about Zimbabwe here may be spot on.
What'll be interesting to watch is to see how many people will be ready for it. With all the ways folks can hedge by simple means: Drive a high mileage car to keep energy costs low, plant a garden to hedge food costs, and work extra-hard to increase your chances of keeping your job if you have one - all that stuff seems to sneak up on people.
I'm always amazed by the number of folks who prepare resumes only after being fired, too. Seems we live in a reactive rather than proactive mental construct. Which, when you think about it, is why most people are where they are now.
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Tennessee Gun Laws
Forgot to mention that folks in Tennessee have a new law that says if a person legally possesses a gun they will NOT have it seized in any period of martial law. RFO (right frigging on...) Someone learned something from KatRita, huh?
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